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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 91

Buffalo Bills 0 – Cleveland Browns 6

What Actually Happened

(1:50) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 59 yards to CLE 32, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 25-D.Hilliard MUFFS catch, and recovers at CLE 27. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 27 for no gain (32-S.Perry).

The Three Options

GO -2.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.03 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 91, worth -5.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 48, worth -3.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP