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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 41

Cleveland Browns 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 88-D.Harris pushed ob at BUF 25 for 16 yards (39-L.Wallace).

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.64 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 41, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.47 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model