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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 9 – Cleveland Browns 12

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 17-Jos.Allen pass incomplete short middle to 15-J.Brown [51-M.Wilson].

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.87 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 36, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 46, worth -2.37 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model