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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 9 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 47 yards to CLE 15, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model