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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 50

Buffalo Bills 7 – Cleveland Browns 9

What Actually Happened

(11:09) (Punt formation) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to CLE 7, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 50, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.71 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model