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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 8

Cleveland Browns 6 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.92 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 8, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model