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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 65

Cleveland Browns 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 7-J.Gillan punts 53 yards to BUF 12, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-A.Roberts to BUF 24 for 12 yards (25-D.Hilliard).

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 65, worth -3.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 23, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model