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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 44

Atlanta Falcons 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan scrambles right end ran ob at NO 39 for 5 yards (24-V.Bell).

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.12 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 44, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -3.00 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model