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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 0 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 3-W.Lutz 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 22, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model