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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 14

New Orleans Saints 9 – Atlanta Falcons 26

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass short right to 13-M.Thomas to ATL 1 for 13 yards (54-F.Oluokun). Pass 13, YAC 0

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +7.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 14, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.05 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24, worth +0.06 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.98 EP