4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 12

Atlanta Falcons 23 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 7-Y.Koo 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.06 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 12, worth -1.07 EP
KICK +1.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.23 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -1.43 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model