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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 81

New Orleans Saints 9 – Atlanta Falcons 23

What Actually Happened

(3:38) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass incomplete short middle to 87-J.Cook (95-J.Crawford).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.69 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 81, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.42 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 38, worth -1.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model