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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 19 at the 63

New Orleans Saints 9 – Atlanta Falcons 20

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 6-T.Morstead punts 42 yards to ATL 21, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 33 for 12 yards (52-C.Robertson).

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.77 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model