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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 10

New Orleans Saints 6 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(6:09) 3-W.Lutz 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.03 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 10, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.64 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model