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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 10 at the 18

Atlanta Falcons 10 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(1:35) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +4.96 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.28 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.82 EP
PUNT -0.88 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model