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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 9 at the 79

New Orleans Saints 3 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(9:28) 6-T.Morstead punts 51 yards to ATL 28, Center-49-Z.Wood. 38-K.Barner to ATL 49 for 21 yards (48-J.Gray).

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.83 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 79, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 36, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model