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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 23

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 20

What Actually Happened

(9:48) 9-M.Gay 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.51 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 33, worth -1.56 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP