Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 64

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Arizona Cardinals 20

(5:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to ARI 19, Center-97-Z.Triner. 12-P.Cooper to ARI 21 for 2 yards (79-P.O'Connor; 17-J.Watson).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.75 EP
67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 64, worth -3.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model