4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 19

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.69 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model