Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 56

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(4:26) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ARI 8, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds. PENALTY on ARI-81-D.Daniels, Offensive Holding, 4 yards, enforced at ARI 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.79 EP
54% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model