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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 6 at the 89

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(5:24) 4-A.Lee punts 56 yards to TB 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 22-T.Logan to TB 39 for 6 yards (59-J.Walker; 38-C.Banjo).

The Three Options

GO -2.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.22 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 89, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.80 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model