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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 12

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(8:57) 9-M.Gay 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.17 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 12, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.80 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model