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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 20 – Carolina Panthers 30

What Actually Happened

(:52) 4-R.Succop 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +2.80 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 36, worth -0.67 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model