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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 30 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to TEN 14, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.68 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -1.60 EP
KICK -0.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model