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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 30 – Tennessee Titans 14

What Actually Happened

(6:06) 4-J.Slye 49 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 41, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model