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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 1 at the 25

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:47) 4-R.Succop 43 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.25 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25, worth -1.34 EP
KICK +1.04 EP
What Happened
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.25 EP