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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 6 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 24 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 40 yards to TEN 6, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-A.Humphries.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.35 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.90 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model