4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 15 at the 90

Tennessee Titans 7 – Carolina Panthers 24

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 6-B.Kern punts 51 yards to CAR 39, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-G.Dortch to 50 for 11 yards (31-K.Byard, 85-M.Pruitt).

The Three Options

GO -3.57 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.85 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model