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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 38

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(:04) 4-R.Succop 56 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.71 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.49 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model