Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 8 at the 73

Tennessee Titans 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 6-B.Kern punts 53 yards to CAR 20, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 14-G.Dortch to CAR 30 for 10 yards (53-D.Bates). PENALTY on CAR-23-J.Elliott, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 20.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.61 EP
63% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.35 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model