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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 17

Carolina Panthers 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:34) 4-J.Slye 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.15 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 27, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model