4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 6 at the 64

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to TB 12, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-T.Logan to TB 31 for 19 yards (48-J.Hollister).

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.48 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 64, worth -3.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 22, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model