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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 71

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(6:25) 8-B.Pinion punts 39 yards to SEA 32, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 16-T.Lockett.

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.16 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 71, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 29, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model