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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 27

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 27

What Actually Happened

(5:27) 9-M.Gay 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.00 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 37, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model