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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Seattle Seahawks 24

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to SEA 23, Center-97-Z.Triner. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 31 for 8 yards (51-K.Minter).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.15 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 68, worth -3.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.34 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 26, worth -1.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP