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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 19

Seattle Seahawks 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

What Actually Happened

(14:30) 5-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 19, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.53 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT +0.52 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model