Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 19 at the 84

Seattle Seahawks 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

(13:40) 4-M.Dickson punts 63 yards to TB 21, Center-69-T.Ott. 22-T.Logan to TB 33 for 12 yards (55-B.Burr-Kirven; 23-N.Thorpe).

The Three Options

GO -2.96 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model