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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 12 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 8-B.Pinion punts 42 yards to SEA 33, Center-97-Z.Triner. 16-T.Lockett pushed ob at SEA 40 for 7 yards (54-L.David).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 75, worth -4.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 32, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model