4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 5 at the 29

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:08) 5-J.Myers 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.25 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model