Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 75

New England Patriots 0 – Baltimore Ravens 7

(8:00) 7-J.Bailey punts 57 yards to BAL 18, Center-49-J.Cardona. 27-C.Jones to BAL 25 for 7 yards (29-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -2.50 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.21 EP
64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 75, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model