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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 1

New England Patriots 10 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(:10) 2-N.Folk 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +4.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 1, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +2.95 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.01 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP