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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 4

New England Patriots 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 2-N.Folk 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 4, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.74 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP