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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 9 at the 37

New England Patriots 7 – Baltimore Ravens 17

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 7-J.Bailey punts 31 yards to BAL 6, Center-49-J.Cardona, downed by NE-43-N.Ebner.

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP