Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 71

Baltimore Ravens 17 – New England Patriots 7

(10:35) 4-S.Koch punts 50 yards to NE 21, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-33-B.Jackson.

The Three Options

GO -1.63 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model