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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(1:01) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +3.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth +0.54 EP
KICK +2.22 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP