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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:12) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.62 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth -0.15 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model