Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 64

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Pittsburgh Steelers 26

What Actually Happened

(4:07) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 44 yards to PIT 20, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 10-R.Switzer to PIT 20 for no gain (58-B.Okereke). PENALTY on IND-58-B.Okereke, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at PIT 20.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.05 EP
73% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model