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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 8

Pittsburgh Steelers 23 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(6:39) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

The Three Options

GO +1.86 EP
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 8, worth +0.04 EP
KICK +1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.05 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model