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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 35

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(10:49) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer sacked at PIT 43 for -8 yards (48-B.Dupree). FUMBLES (48-B.Dupree) [48-B.Dupree], RECOVERED by PIT-48-B.Dupree at PIT 46. 48-B.Dupree to PIT 46 for no gain (74-A.Castonzo).

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.89 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model