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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 2 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 16 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(12:40) (Shotgun) 25-M.Mack up the middle to PIT 41 for 5 yards (56-A.Chickillo).

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.04 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.80 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.96 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model